Some good, and some bad, from UKIP’s Party Conference
Sep 2014 26

UKIP today announced a number of new policies, the details of which can be found here. Jonathan Isaby, Chief Executive of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, responded by saying:

“For every good policy announced today, UKIP conjured up a bad one. Despite all the talk of simpler, fairer taxes, many of the proposals announced today will only increase taxes and add further complexity to our already baffling tax system. The frankly bizarre “luxury tax” on handbags and Jimmy Choos would be a nightmare to administer, add hundreds of pages to the tax law books, and would send a very strong anti-aspiration message.

“All parties should promise to abolish the unfair and unjust Inheritance Tax, and the Barnett Formula needs significant reform. But where were the radical proposals to reduce spending? It’s wrong to claim savings from HS2 – which should be scrapped – could pay for anything else, as the money needs to be borrowed anyway. Tax cuts deliver economic growth and raise money in the long-term, but they must be accompanied by clear proposals showing how to bring the deficit down.”

Assessing MoD manpower
Sep 2014 05

A report by the Public Accounts Committee released today has accused the Government of botching the restructuring of the Army.

The “Army 2020” programme plans to integrate a regular Army of 82,500 with a larger and more frequently used Army Reserve (formerly known as the Territorial Army) of 30,000. Pre-2010 there were 102,000 regulars and 19,000 reservists.

The Government stands accused of failing to adequately consult the Army before embarking on the restructuring and risking capabilities by missing recruitment targets.

The defence budget is notoriously difficult to control. Massive cost overruns on major projects are commonplace and decisions are subjected to intense scrutiny, especially when the armed forces are deployed on operations.

However George Osborne announced at the Spending Round in 2013 that the MoD’s Capital and Resource Departmental Expenditure Limits would be frozen in cash terms for 2014-15 and 2015-16.

Given the need to make savings and the political unpopularity of making service personnel redundant, there will have to be a substantial decrease in the number of civilian staff at the MoD if the Chancellor is to hit his spending targets. Indeed at the Strategic Defence and Security Review in 2010 it was announced that 25,000 civilian jobs at the MoD were to be cut by 2015.

A new research note by the TaxPayers’ Alliance examines the long term trend in the number of military personnel compared to the number of civilian personnel in the UK since 1945.

“Unusual” decisions at Salford Council under the spotlight
Aug 2014 27

This morning saw Salford Council’s Audit Committee meet to discuss the findings of an internal report into the exact circumstances of a £164,000 taxpayer-funded “bailout” paid to the local rugby league club, Salford Red Devils, in 2013.

Journalists at the Manchester Evening News as well as other local writers have covered this story with aplomb. In particular, they have revealed that the council official – Martin Vickers – who signed off the bailout very soon left after the decision, taking up a position months later at the very same Salford Red Devils rugby club.

It appears from newspaper reports that not only was the bailout agreed without proper record-keeping, but that it was agreed by Mr. Vickers, the Mayor Ian Stewart and his deputy David Lancaster without the knowledge of Council Chief Executive Barbara Spicer, against Council procedure.

Even more remarkably, reports go on to say that Mr. Vickers soon after requested voluntary redundancy and, again without the Chief Executive’s knowledge, three days later a £79,000 “golden goodbye” was paid. This package, stunningly, included a Volkswagen Golf and an iPad.

At this morning’s Audit Committee meeting, it became clear that any spending decision over £100,000 had to have a proper paper trail and be made public. That was not the case, though the Council’s Monitoring Officer suggested this was due to “human error” rather than anything more sinister.

The Audit Committee voted to accept the recommendations of the internal report which places into procedure the various checks and balances which were already in place before this bailout was put together. Despite the Chair asking for the Committee to look into an independent inquiry into what occurred between Mr. Vickers, Mr. Stewart and the rugby club, it appears this matter will – at least officially – be laid to rest. This is despite the Monitoring Officer admitting this morning that the way in which the bailout was negotiated and the speed with which the redundancy package was paid was “unusual.” Apparently understatement is a key part of the job description for the role.

Regardless of the rights and wrongs of bailing out a private rugby club – and, when the Council was attempting to find savings elsewhere in the budget, it is difficult to justify the move – the lack of transparency and accountability will stick in the throat of taxpayers. Nobody should be allowed to hide behind procedure, regardless of whether they have – as in Mr. Vickers’ case – left the Council’s employment. It is wrong that Councillors have no ability to question him.

To quote Jennifer Williams, the Political Reporter at the Manchester Evening News, “the point of democratic process and transparency is to allow criticism.” That entire page, reporting on this morning’s discussions, is worth reading, as is the report by Neal Keeling, also from the MEN, on leaked emails which appear to show those in charge knew that they were avoiding due process.

We hope that individuals and the local newspapers will continue to put pressure on Salford Council so that taxpayers are able to understand how nearly a quarter of a million pounds without anybody apparently thinking to write it down.

A sign of progress, but much more to do
Jun 2014 11

The Government’s Efficiency and Reform Group this week revealed progress in tackling wasteful spending, finding an additional £14.3bn in savings for the 2013/14 financial year. This builds on savings of £3.75bn (2010/11), £5.5bn (2011/12) and £10bn (2012/13).

Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude and his team should be commended. Over previous decades, wasteful spending has skyrocketed. The public sector has too often spent over the odds, blowing taxpayers’ money on ridiculously expensive stationery, on poorly-managed contracts, on an army of consultants, on far too much. That money should have instead been spent on essential services – or simply not spent at all, and left in the pockets of taxpayers.

So news of successful moves to tackle inefficiency is welcome. Finally, some common sense is being applied to running central government.

But for this to translate to a better deal for taxpayers, this can only be the opening battle of a war on waste. Taxpayers worked 148 days this year just to cover their tax bill. Yet they still find wasteful government spending contributing to our enormous public debt, and eliminating waste is the first step in lowering people’s taxes across the country. That’s the thinking behind our War on Waste Roadshow, taking our message of transparency and accountability to 30 towns and cities across the country.

There is no doubting that, as Francis Maude himself has admitted, there is plenty more to do. An attitude that abhors waste and chases efficiency has to be the norm rather than the exception throughout the public sector if the Government is to deliver the value for money that taxpayers deserve.

Nick Clegg should remember whose money it is he’s talking about
Jun 2014 09

Nick Clegg announced two new fiscal rules that Liberal Democrats would implement should they form a new coalition after the 2015 General Election. The Deputy Prime Minister told an audience at Bloomberg that they will “significantly reduce” national debt as a proportion of national income each year until it reached “sustainable levels”, so long as growth is positive. The second rule would be to only run cyclically-adjusted balanced budgets after ignoring capital spending “that enhances economic growth or financial stability”.

So what do these rules mean?

The wording of Clegg’s debt rule is surprisingly tight. He’s not saying that the national debt won’t carry on growing. He’s just saying that it will grow less quickly than national income, and then only when the economy is growing. The main ambiguity concerns what “significantly reduce” means, and what “sustainable levels” are. Looking at Budget 2014, the OBR estimated that net debt would fall from 78.7 per cent of GDP next year to 78.3 per cent the following year. It would then fall by 1.8 and then 2.3 percentage points to reach 74.2 per cent in 2018-19. This is probably what Clegg means.

But what are the risks? These OBR estimates assume interest rates on gilts edging up slowly from 3.3 per cent in 2015-16 to 4.0 per cent in 2018-19. In addition, they assume GDP increasing at 3.9, 4.6, 4.5 and then 4.4 per cent in cash terms. This is important because most of the national debt is not adjusted for inflation. If economic growth slows down but by enough to suspend the rule, not only would that increase the debt-to-GDP ratio, it would also mean that tax revenues would disappoint, spending pressure would increase and interest rates on government borrowing might rise faster than expected. The plans also assume the Government will carry out cuts to welfare spending which it has penciled in but which remain unspecified.

Mr Clegg’s balanced budget rule is somewhat less tight. First, it only applies to ‘cyclically adjusted’ budgets. That means if the economic cycle is miscalculated too much spending or absent tax revenue could be cyclically adjusted away. It also only applies to current spending which is problematic for two reasons. It assumes any capital spending will recoup itself through stronger growth and because, as Mr Clegg said about spending under the previous government, ministers might be tempted to “slap the words ‘capital spending’ on anything and everything just so they could get away with borrowing to pay for it”.

The problem is that not all capital spending by government is so efficient and productive. And by including housing in our ‘infrastructure’, Mr Clegg began his campaign to spend much more of our money on his projects.

we cannot build a stronger economy and a fairer society where there are opportunities for everyone unless we are prepared to put our shoulders to the wheel and use the muscle of the state – if necessary through borrowing – to rewire and revamp our infrastructure. Nowhere is the problem more acute than housing.

We aren’t building the infrastructure we need, whether that’s housing, transport or telecommunications. But the problem is too much “state muscle”, as he puts it, not too little. Planning rules are stopping developers from building the homes we need in the places buyers want to live, and they are making it much too expensive to build them in the first place. And Heathrow is desperate to build a new runway to provide new capacity for our air transport networks in the place where they’re most wanted. But it can’t, because “the muscle of the state” has decided it wants to spend the years writing a report while spending billions of our money on a seriously flawed high speed rail project that no private business has any interested in building with their own money.

The problem is best summed up when Mr Clegg rallied listeners to the cause of spending taxpayers’ money on housing projects:

It’s time to put our money where our mouth is.

Mr Clegg, it’s not your money. It’s ours.

Is less government better government?
May 2014 28

Last night I debated ‘Is a Smaller State a Better State‘ at the Bristol Festival of Ideas, with Labour peer Maurice Glasman and the Observer’s chief leader writer Yvonne Roberts, chaired by the Observer’s assistant editor Julian Coman. The debate was interesting with three distinct views, but there were also striking areas of agreement across some of the topics discussed.

My argument was largely focused on the economics and ethics of high levels of spending and taxation, while also acknowledging various other regulations and prohibitions which affect people’s lives outside the tax-and-spend framework.

On the economic question, I talked about the overwhelming evidence linking lower levels of government spending and taxation with faster, more dynamic economies. There are countless studies in the academic literature which almost universally demonstrate that the size of government where the economy grows fastest is far below the 43 per cent of our national income which the government now spends. These studies have been discussed in The Single Income Tax on pages 104 and 132. The contrast between the economies of France and Britain, and between those two countries and Singapore and Hong Kong, demonstrates the results point with remarkable clarity:GDP as proportion of UK

Regarding ethics, I talked about the coercive nature of tax and spend, and how it eclipses personal morality, promotes special interest lobbying and corrodes individual morality and politics. I drew heavily from the excellent essay by Eamonn Butler in The Single Income Tax (pp 79-87).

There were many areas of disagreement, but also many where we agreed. Maurice Glasman, meanwhile, made the case that incentives to work must be strengthened and Yvonne Roberts spoke of the feeling that the state does things to people rather than with them. There was also universal agreement that taxpayers being forced to bail out bank shareholders was deeply unjust.

At the end of the debate and questions session, the audience was asked to vote on whether the state was too big, too small or about right. About a third voted for each proposition.

More funding for GPs would ignore the need for fundamental reform
May 2014 12

The Sunday Times reported yesterday that 800,000 patients were turning to A&E departments and walk-in centres because they are unable to get an appointment with a GP.

Predictably, the chair of the Royal College of GPs blamed a “funding crisis” and warned that the service was “teetering on the brink of collapse.”

With constant talk in the media of an NHS cash crunch/funding crisis (delete as appropriate), it’s important to understand some basics about the NHS budget and general practice.

Historically speaking, the NHS has received large, real term budget increases for a couple of years in a row, and then had a few years of lower spending. This changed around the turn of the century when the NHS was handed big budget increases throughout the 2000s.

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, between 1979 and 1997, NHS spending increased in real terms by an average of 3.2 per cent. Between 1999 and 2008, this figure was 6.3 per cent.

It’s hardly surprising that spending on healthcare has increased both in absolute terms and as a share of public spending as the population ages. It’s also hardly surprising that health spending isn’t being increased as aggressively as it was in the 2000s when it went up by 92 per cent in real terms.

So it’s disingenuous for GPs to complain that their funding has fallen by pointing out that as a percentage of the NHS budget, as it now represents 8.4 per cent rather than the 10.3 per cent it did in 2004. This just means they have a slightly smaller share of a much bigger pie.

Talk of a “cash crisis” isn’t anything new.  There were endless stories about impending financial disaster for the NHS during the years when it was handed unprecedented budget increases.

It’s hardly surprising that people struggle to get an appointment with their GP with the number of practices opening late or at the weekend falling.

The 2004 GP contract gave many GPs the ability to opt-out of providing out of hours care and many chose to do so. This trend has continued long after the contract was agreed, with a further 13.3 per cent fall in the number of GP practices offering weekend and evening appointments between 2009 and 2013.

The National Audit Office looked at the effects of the contract in 2008 and found that:

  • Between 2002-03 and 2005-06 the average pay of a GMS and PMS practice partner in England increased from £72,011 in 2002-03 to £113,614 in 2005-06 – a 58 per cent increase
  •  GPs are working on average seven hours less per week than in 1992
  • By January 2005, less than 10 per cent of GP practices delivered out-of-hours care under the nGMS contract. Out of hours is defined as the period from 6.30pm to 8.00am.
  • Practice nurses and salaried GPs, who form part of the practice team, have not benefited to the same extent with pay rises largely in line or indeed below inflation
  • 27 per cent of GPs work part-time

Simply put, in the UK we have a system which pays a small number of doctors a lot of money. Other developed countries have decided to pay their doctors slightly less, and have more of them:

  • The majority of GPs in the UK are self-employed. They earn 3.5 times the average wage in the UK, far more than in Australia (1.7) France (2.1) and Denmark (2.7). Along with Denmark and Poland, the UK is the only country in the OECD where GPs earn more than the average medical specialist
  • Consequently, we have fewer doctors than most developed countries, with 2.7 per 1,000 people. This compares to 3.3 in France, 3.6 in Germany and 6.1 in Greece

The other sacrifice we make is having less modern medical equipment than most other developed countries:

  • We have fewer MRI scanners per head of population than Slovenia, Estonia, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Greece has four times as many
  • We have fewer CT scanners per head of population than every country in the OECD apart from Hungary and Mexico. Chile and Poland have more and Estonia has twice as many

If GPs’ pay fell more in line with the likes of Australia and France, there would be more of them, more out of hours care available, and fewer people using A&E departments.

Before coming up with proposals to charge for visiting a GP or demanding more money from taxpayers, GPs need to explain why they deserve to be paid so much more than their international counterparts, and why their high salaries are preferable to having more doctors and more modern medical equipment.

We need to incentivise work
Apr 2014 29

I run a small business in Wales. The company has grown from strength to strength in the past year, and since Christmas I have even been able to create a further five jobs. The positions created have in-house management training opportunities attached, there are no formal educational requirements – just the eagerness to learn and develop.

Many individuals claim that there are too many barriers to work, such as education, the availability of work and the flexibility of work. The five positions created all have flexibility, and as mentioned there are no formal entry requirements. However, last week I cleared my schedule so that I could interview a further batch of candidates nearly five months after the jobs had been created.

There is certainly no lack of applicants – approximately 50 per day. Unfortunately, though, the majority don’t answer their phones or return messages, and of the 20 applicants booked in for interviews this week alone, only one has shown up. And this after a lengthy telephone conversation and a confirmation text confirming our location and times.

As a small business owner, recruitment is the biggest drain on my time. Much of that time should be used to generate more business and grow the company even further, which in turn would create even more jobs and wealth. In recent weeks both the UK and Welsh Governments have been talking about reduced unemployment rates of 6.8 per cent in Wales (6.9 per cent nationally). But I would argue that the problem hasn’t disappeared, it has just moved.

The welfare state is a massive burden on taxpayers, and rather than the national or Welsh Governments tackling the problem they are merely exasperating it. A coherent approach to helping the unemployed back to work has to be adopted, rather than benefits for life. Alex Wild wrote in this morning’s City AM on conditional welfare – that would be a good place to start.

Windsor and Maidenhead cut Council Tax
Jan 2014 21

Windsor and Maidenhead Council today announced a 2 per cent tax cut proposal for 2014-15. The cut will represent the fifth successive year of rate reductions, during which time the tax burden has decreased by a considerable 26 per cent in real terms.

Councils like Windsor and Maindenhead which cut tax while providing efficient services serve as an example from which other councils should learn. For example, the council points to £7.5 million that has been allocated for the brand new Oldfield Primary School in Maidenhead, with another £3.7 million planned for the new Stafferton Way link road. Simon Dudley, the cabinet member for finance, explains their approach:
The Royal Borough has a track record of council tax cuts without cutting services… We run our finances knowing that it is residents’ money to spend prudently.
The borough has taken action to cut costs such as saving £220,000 through IT improvements which include moving to cloud technology. Councils across the country would do well to pay attention. If more focus was directed towards intelligent and necessary spending while cutting back on frills and waste, residents could access good quality services while lightening the load on long-suffering taxpayers.
COMMENT: The Chancellor cannot cut the deficit without tackling state pensions
Jun 2013 25
I wrote for City AM on the need for pensions reform if we’re going to tackle the deficit in the long term:
IT HAS been six years since the financial crisis began, and the government’s books are still in a mess. As the chancellor prepares his latest Spending Review, public sector borrowing will yet again exceed £100bn this year. And most of that isn’t even cyclical – it is structural. In other words, its annual accounts will still be in the red even when the economy returns to a normal state.
Private rail proposal could save taxpayers £1 billion
Jun 2013 20

The Government has recently set aside £500 million to build a rail link between Heathrow and The West and is likely to agree a similar figure for a line running south from Heathrow. But Windsor Link Railway, a private company, is competing to build the route and for a fraction of the cost. It is proposing the first wholly privately funded new rail line in over 100 years. According to its website, Windsor Link Railway’s proposals could save taxpayers over £1 billion.

This two phased project aims first to link Slough to Staines via Windsor and then to connect Heathrow to the Great Western Main Line and The South, significantly improving access to Heathrow and giving local people a much better service. It has support from local MPs including Michael Gove and Zac Goldsmith, Transport minister Theresa Villiers confirmed that it complies with the government’s specifications too.

What’s more, 95 per cent of local residents were in support of the scheme according to recent polling and over 100 local businesses have signed a letter declaring the project better than competing schemes.

The cost per metre of track is far higher in the UK than elsewhere in Europe, a problem exacerbated by shocking inefficiency of Network Rail and the complexities in building new rail imposed by the Department for Transport. So it will be interesting to watch this develop. If new private rail could see significantly improved services for passengers and better value for money for taxpayers then the option must be seriously considered.

G8 declaration won’t fix our hideously complex tax code
Jun 2013 18

Commenting on the Lough Erne Declaration, Matthew Sinclair, Chief Executive of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said:

“This summit was a distraction which was never going to address the root cause of British public disquiet over tax avoidance: our hideously complex tax code.

“The way to ensure that all companies and individuals pay their fair share of tax here in the UK is for the politicians at Westminster who created our tax system to simplify it by scrapping the loopholes they introduced and ensuring that tax rates are competitive. Only then will people again trust that everyone is paying what is due.

“Transparency is important, on the part of both tax authorities and multinational companies. But it is also vital that there is tax competition between different nations, because that pushes down overall tax rates for families and businesses alike.”

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