Briefing: Chagos deal equal to 12 years of winter fuel payment savings

Embargoed: 22:30 Friday, 7th February 2025

• The £18 billion upper estimate for the Chagos deal matches the government's projected savings over 12 years from means testing winter fuel payments.
  
  
• The lower £9 billion estimate for the Chagos deal exceeds the combined costs of various public sector projects, from efforts to improve HM Revenue and Customs’ digital capabilities to the plan to crack down on abuses of the asylum system. 
  
  

The TaxPayers’ Alliance has discovered that the revised Chagos deal offered to Mauritius by prime minister Keir Starmer is equivalent to 12 years of winter fuel payment savings.

Infrastructure projects such as the TransPennine route upgrade or the Lower Thames Crossing could be completed while key improvements to boost productivity across the public sector such as NHS frontline digitalisation could also be achieved. This follows the major backlash from opposition politicians over the cost of the Chagos deal this week.

READ THE FULL BRIEFING NOTE HERE

Key findings:

• The lower £9 billion estimate for the Chagos deal is greater than the whole life cost of the Lower Thames Crossing, which totals £8.95 billion. 
• The higher £18 billion estimate for the Chagos deal is equal to what the government expects to save for 12 years by means testing winter fuel payments.
• The costs of the TransPennine route upgrade (£11.1 billion), affordable homes programme (£11.6 billion), early years childcare reform programme (£15.1 billion) and universal credit reform programme (£17.3 billion) are all lower than the higher estimate of the Chagos payment.
• The lower estimate of the Chagos deal is more than the combined costs of frontline digitalisation, the new plan for immigration, making tax digital, immigration removal centre expansion programme, electronic monitoring expansion, teacher development reform programme, digital services at the border programme, fraud reform, AI labs and cerberus.
• The lower cost of £9 billion for the Chagos deal is almost nine times more in real terms than the combined cost of the Louisiana purchase, Alaska purchase and the treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo.

READ THE FULL BRIEFING NOTE HERE

John O’Connell, chief executive of the TaxPayers' Alliance, said:

"The cost of the Chagos deal adds insult to an already disgraceful and immoral betrayal of British interests.

“The government is surrendering sovereign territory and forcing taxpayers to foot the bill, all while families and businesses suffer under the consequences of the chancellor's economic vandalism.

“The prime minister needs to stop appeasing lawyers and international bureaucrats and end this handover of British sovereign territory immediately.”


TPA spokespeople are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 07795 084 113 (no texts)


Media contact:

William Yarwood
Media Campaign Manager 
[email protected]
24-hour media hotline: 07795 084 113 (no texts)


Notes to editors:

1. Founded in 2004 by Matthew Elliott and Andrew Allum, the TaxPayers' Alliance (TPA) campaigns to reform taxes and public services, cut waste and speak up for British taxpayers. Find out more at www.taxpayersalliance.com.
   
   
2. TaxPayers' Alliance's research council.