When Labour was elected in 2024 it promised to deliver ‘nothing less than a national renewal’, making a bold commitment to ‘fix our foundations and make people better off’ as well as vowing to ‘take the brakes off our economy’.[1] But nearly one year on, the prime minister’s popularity has fallen to a record low with it most acutely felt among Labour voters.[2] This note examines how Keir Starmer has performed on five economic indicators in his first year, comparing it to the first years of other 21st century prime ministers.
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Key findings
- Keir Starmer’s first year as prime minister saw the second worst level of business confidence, inflation and unemployment compared to the first years of all other 21st century prime ministers.
- Unemployment rose by 0.23 percentage points in 2024-25.
- Inflation was 3.2 per cent in 2024-25.
- Business confidence was 99.16, relative to a long-term average of 100.[3]
- GDP grew by 1.2 per cent in Keir Starmer’s first year, ranking him fifth of the seven 21st century prime ministers. Only Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson oversaw lower growth in their first year.
- Keir Starmer’s first year saw the third largest increase in public sector net debt in percentage terms, rising by 3.74 per cent, behind only David Cameron and Tony Blair.
- Overall, Keir Starmer’s first year ranks six of seven among 21st century prime ministers.
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[1] Hansard, Debate on the Address; Volume 752, UK Parliament, 17 July 2024, hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-07-17/debates/E49310A5-9111-4957-905D-5471B0019D80/DebateOnTheAddress (accessed 20 June 2025).
[2] Pickard, J., Keir Starmer’s popularity sinks to record low in poll, Financial Times, 16 May 2025.
[3] Numbers above 100 suggest increased confidence in near future business performance, and numbers below indicate pessimism towards future performance.