Risk that NHS will be quarter of the UK economy this century, TaxPayers’ Alliance warns

Embargoed: 22:30, Sunday 22nd June 2025~

• If NHS funding increases by the long term average of 3.6 per cent after this parliament, the NHS will be equal to a quarter of the UK economy by the end of this century.
  
  
• At a 3.6 per cent rate of increase after this parliament, total NHS funding in 2099-2100 will be £2.6 trillion, or equal to 90 per cent of current GDP.
  
  
• TaxPayers’ Alliance is calling for health leaders to focus on boosting sluggish productivity.

There is a risk that the NHS will be equal to a quarter of the whole UK economy by the end of this century, the TaxPayers’ Alliance has warned ahead of the annual representative meeting of the British Medical Association (BMA). 

At the long term average rate of growth in NHS spending and the forecast rate of GDP growth, NHS spending is estimated to reach £2.6 trillion in 2099-2100, which would be 24.6 per cent of UK GDP, at £10.5 trillion.

NHS spending in 2024-25 was £187 billion, equal to 7 per cent of GDP, with spending set to grow by 3 per cent per year during this parliament. As a result of this, NHS spending will make up half of all day-to-day government spending by the end of the parliament according to the Resolution Foundation.

However this rate of spending growth is below both the long term average rate of 3.6 per cent, and the rate of real terms funding growth called for by the BMA in their submission to the autumn budget, when they called for real terms funding growth of 6.7 per cent for the DHSC as a whole. If NHS spending returned to the long term average rate after this Parliament (i.e. the rate of growth since 1949-50) and assuming the average rate of growth forecast by the OBR up until 2073-74 remains consistent, the NHS will be equal to a quarter of UK GDP in 2099-2100.

If the growth rate was increased to 3.8 per cent, the average rate of growth since the 1980s, as called for by some campaigners, the NHS would be equal to a quarter of GDP seven years earlier, in 2092-93. According to the Health Foundation, this rate of growth is necessary to achieve "sustained improvement.”


Key findings:

• • NHS spending was £186.8 billion in 2024-25 according to the 2025 spending review, equivalent to 7 per cent of UK GDP in 2024-25 which was £2.9 trillion. 
  • NHS spending is set to grow by 3 per cent per year in real terms until 2028-29. If it continues to grow by 3.6 per cent per year in real terms thereafter (the so-called long term average) it will reach £2.6 trillion by 2099-2100. 
    • This would be a quarter (24.6 per cent) of UK GDP in 2099-2100 which would be £10.5 trillion. 

• This would be equal to 90 per cent of current GDP, which is £2.9 trillion.

• If NHS spending increased by 3.8 per cent per year from 2028-29, the average rate of growth since the 1980s, the NHS would be equal to a quarter of UK GDP by 2092-93.
• By the end of this decade, according to the Resolution Foundation, the NHS will make up half (49 per cent) of day-to-day government spending.

Shimeon Lee, policy analyst of the TaxPayers' Alliance, said:

"Brits often joke that the UK is a health service with a country attached, but it may not be long until this joke turns into a reality.

“If NHS funding increases return to the long term trend, as many are calling for, it will be equal to a shocking quarter of the economy by the end of this century.

“As well as demonstrating the need for spending restraint and productivity increases, this is also a reminder of the urgent need to boost growth.”


TPA spokespeople are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 07795 084 113 (no texts)


Media contact:

Elliot Keck
Head of Campaigns, TaxPayers' Alliance
[email protected]
24-hour media hotline: 07795 084 113 (no texts)

Notes to editors:

1. Founded in 2004 by Matthew Elliott and Andrew Allum, the TaxPayers' Alliance (TPA) campaigns to reform taxes and public services, cut waste and speak up for British taxpayers. Find out more at www.taxpayersalliance.com.
   
   
2. TaxPayers' Alliance's research council.
   
   
3. Methodology:
   1. The forecast rate of increase in NHS funding is based on the long term average growth rate since 1949-50
   2. The forecast on the size of the economy is based on the OBR's economic growth assumptions from their long term economic determinants until 2073-74. After this date, the growth rate has been taken to be an average of growth from 2025-26 to 2073-74.