Starmer government set to spend £6.43 trillion by end of parliament

Embargoed: Sunday, 23rd March 2025

• Starmer government set to spend £6.43 trillion by end of parliament, despite calls for spending cuts.
  
  
• Starmer set to be second highest spending PM since second world war, behind only Boris Johnson.
  
  
• Four of the ten biggest spending years in that period will be during Startmer’s time in office.

Despite warnings about public spending cuts in Wednesday’s spring statement, analysis by the TaxPayers’ Alliance has revealed that average spending under Keir Starmer as a percentage of GDP will be the second highest of any post war prime minister.

Over the course of this parliament, the government is expected to spend a total of £6.43 trillion, or an average of 45 per cent of GDP per year, behind only Boris Johnson at 45.4 per cent of GDP. But Johnson’s numbers are distorted by the pandemic years, meaning that of the ten financial years with the highest spending since 1948, Starmer will have presided over four by the end of the parliament, compared to two for Johnson.

On the current trajectory, the analysis also reveals that by the end of the parliament real terms public spending will be more than double what it was at the turn of the millennium. It will mean that by 2029-30, public spending per household is set to reach £45,184, up from £43,670 in 2024-25.

The TaxPayers’ Alliance’s debt clock shows the UK’s national debt, using the definition of public sector net debt excluding the Bank of England, growing at £6,284 per second or £543 million per day.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE BRIEFING NOTE

Key findings:

• Public spending is set to rise to a record high of £1.27 trillion in 2025-26, £23.2 billion more than spending at the peak of the pandemic in 2020-21 and up 20 per cent from pre pandemic levels.  
• By 2029-30, public spending per household is set to reach £45,184, up from £43,670 in 2024-25. 
• By the end of this parliament, real terms public spending will be more than double what it was at the turn of the millennium, £1.32 trillion in 2028-29 compared to £654 billion in 1999-00. 
• The current government will have spent a total of £6.43 trillion by the end of this parliament. 
• Public spending is set to be 45.3 per cent of GDP in 2025-26. This level of spending has only been surpassed on four occasions in the post war era:
  • At the height of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21 when it was 53 per cent.
  • In the wake of the great financial crisis when it was 46.4 and 45.7 per cent from 2009-11.
  • During the sterling crisis in 1975-76 when it was 46.5 per cent. 
• While spending fell after the latter two crises, it has remained at historically high levels following the covid-19 pandemic, suggesting a permanent expansion of the state. 
• Margaret Thatcher achieved the lowest level of public spending as a percentage of GDP in the postwar era, 34.6 per cent of GDP in 1988-89. 
• As a percentage of GDP, average spending under Keir Starmer will be the second highest of any post war prime minister at 45 per cent. Only Boris Johnson, who presided over the covid-19 pandemic, exceeds this at 45.4 per cent. 
• Keir Starmer will preside over four of the ten financial years with the highest spending since 1948:
  • Boris Johnson presided over two
  • David Cameron, Gordon Brown, James Callaghan and Harold Wilson presided over one each.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE BRIEFING NOTE

John O’Connell, chief executive of the TaxPayers' Alliance, said:

"The talk of spending cuts in the upcoming spring statement shouldn’t fool anyone given the terrifying trajectory of the size of the state.

“Even if Reeves manages to trim some of the fat on Wednesday, the reality will still be one of austerity for taxpayers and prosperity for the public sector.

“Labour must not allow some sensible decisions on quangos, government credit cards and welfare to convince them that they’ve done anymore than the bare minimum in recent weeks.”

Maxwell Marlow, Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute, said: 

“These figures should be ringing alarm bells at the very top of government. The rate at which the UK’s national debt is increasing is completely unsustainable. But sadly they are indicative of the state’s addiction to spending taxpayers’- whether it’s today’s taxpayers’ or their future grandchildren’s- money.

“The problem will only get worse. British public services are inefficient and yet are still swallowing more and more of our cash and the welfare bill is skyrocketing- yet it is clear that politicians have no idea how they are going to pay for any of it. And now the government is set on driving away High Net Worth Individuals- and their taxes and economic output. 

“The government must radically deregulate the economy, abolish wasteful QUANGOs, cut the welfare bill- in particular the state pension- and encourage more wealth-creators to come to the UK as a matter of urgency”

TPA spokespeople are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 07795 084 113 (no texts)

Media contact:

Elliot Keck
Head of Campaigns, TaxPayers' Alliance
[email protected]
24-hour media hotline: 07795 084 113 (no texts)

Notes to editors:

1. Founded in 2004 by Matthew Elliott and Andrew Allum, the TaxPayers' Alliance (TPA) campaigns to reform taxes and public services, cut waste and speak up for British taxpayers. Find out more at www.taxpayersalliance.com.
   
   
2. TaxPayers' Alliance's research council.