TaxPayers’ Alliance declares “personal recession” in response to GDP figures

For immediate release

• TPA declares “personal recession”, meaning two consecutive quarters of falling GDP per capita.
  
  
• Research by the group has found that this is third “personal recession” since the mid 2010s.
  
  
• This comes as ONS figures show that in October to December 2024 the economy grew by 0.1 per cent.
  

British taxpayers are experiencing a “personal recession”, as declared by the TaxPayers’ Alliance following analysis by the group of figures from the Office for National Statistics out this morning (Thursday 13th February, 2025).

Despite the ONS revealing that the UK saw economic growth from October to December 2024, there has been two consecutive quarters of negative GDP per capita growth meaning living standards are in decline and Brits are experiencing a “personal recession.” GDP per capita shrunk by 0.3 per cent in July to September and then by a further 0.1 per cent in October to December.

And analysis of figures over the last decade has found that the UK has seen negative GDP growth over nine quarters, with two previous personal recessions in 2020 and 2023-24, meaning this is the third personal recession since the mid 2010s.

The TPA are calling for GDP per capita to be placed at least at parity with overall GDP figures in government policy-making and are calling for a specific policy response to limit the burden on taxpayers during personal recessions, including:

1. Limits on benefit increases
2. Departmental spending reviews 
3. A visa category review focusing on increasing the proportion of high skilled immigrants as a percentage of overall immigration
4. Public sector pay freeze

The TPA are also calling on MPs pay to be linked to GDP per capita, with pay based on average GDP per capita growth over a five year period, excluding any years of negative growth to ensure MPs’ pay does not fall. If this had been in place since 2010, MPs pay would be £81,945, instead of the £93,904 it is expected to rise to.

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Commenting, John O’Connell, chief executive of the TaxPayers' Alliance, said:

“The brutal reality for British taxpayers is that despite headline figures showing marginal overall growth, they are experiencing their own personal recession.

“Two consecutive quarters of falling GDP per capita means a sustained and damaging decline in living standards for the average household, with potentially worse to come given much of Rachel Reeves’ catastrophic budget is yet to come into effect.

“During periods of personal recession there should be a significant policy response including freezes on public sector pay, limits on benefit increases and spending reviews for government departments.”

TPA spokespeople are available for live and pre-recorded broadcast interviews via 07795 084 113 (no texts)

Media contact:

Elliot Keck
Head of Campaigns 
[email protected]
24-hour media hotline: 07795 084 113 (no texts)

Notes to editors:

1. Founded in 2004 by Matthew Elliott and Andrew Allum, the TaxPayers' Alliance (TPA) campaigns to reform taxes and public services, cut waste and speak up for British taxpayers. Find out more at www.taxpayersalliance.com.
   
   
2. TaxPayers' Alliance's research council.
   
   
3. All figures come from the Office for National Statistics. The latest GDP quarterly release was for October to December 2024 and can be found here.