Well they’ve landed. Across the country, council tax bills have landed in inboxes and postboxes with the new, increased rates that taxpayers will have to pay. In some places, such as Wandsworth, residents are getting off lightly. In others, such as Falkirk, bills have shot up by 15 plus per cent.
In England average bills for a band D property have increased by 5 per cent. That’s after a 5.1 per cent increase in 2024-25 and a 5.1 per cent increase in 2023-24. Over the last ten years the average increase has been 4.4 per cent per annum after years of only marginal increases.
Given there is a clear trend, many taxpayers must surely be wondering what their bills will look like in a few years time. Well, as reported in The Telegraph, we at the TPA have analysed by council tax area what the average band D bill could be in 2029-30, the last year of the parliament. It finds that there will be 28 areas where bills will be over £3,000, with band D bills coming in at an average of around £2,750 across England. This comes just days after we released our town hall rich list, which revealed the 3,906 council officers receiving over £100,000 in remuneration in 2023-4
This is, of course, an estimate. It’s based on a few important assumptions, laid out below. If you look at your potential bill and raise more than an eyebrow then please sign our petition to cut council tax.
Assumption one: the referendum cap is set at the same level for each type of council and precepting authority for the remainder of the parliament
This is the key one. Each year, central government sets a cap for council tax increases above which authorities have to hold a referendum to receive approval. In 2025-26 the principles were almost identical to those in 2024-25. Namely:
- County councils, unitary authorities, metropolitan districts and London boroughs have a cap of 4.99 per cent
- District councils have a cap of 2.99 per cent
- Police forces and Combined Authorities have a cap of £13.99
- Fire authorities have a cap of £4.99
- The Greater London Authority has a cap of £18.98
Assumption two: increased referendum caps aren’t repeated
A key exception to this, is that a number of councils were given an increased ceiling, due to financial pressures. Take Windsor and Maidenhead, where the council was given an 8.99 per cent cap (although only after some hard campaigning by us, with the council demanding 24.99 per cent initially). We have assumed that there are no exceptions made in the next few years, a pretty generous one given the state of town hall finances.
Assumption three: parish precepts remain unchanged from 2024-25
Parish councils, of which you’ll be hearing more from the TPA, have no referendum cap. That leads to massive percentage increases like the 35 per cent hike in Burnham-on-Sea and Highbridge for this financial year.
As a result, it is simply not possible to forecast increases in parish precepts - although we could use an average from previous years, given the nature of the councils, which often hike bills significantly or sometimes even make large cuts, we decided to simply maintain the 2024-25 rate. In reality, most places will see higher bills than we’ve forecast, therefore.