Briefing: measures from September 2022 fiscal event

Key findings:

  • The measures in the ‘growth plan’ will raise annual economic output by £99 billion over ten years, 3 per cent larger than without the reforms.

  • Investment is forecast to be £29 billion higher annually, 10 per cent higher than without the reforms.

  • Average weekly earnings (before tax) are predicted to be £22 higher as a result of dynamic effects of the reforms. Annually, this equates to a £1,148 increase.

  • The plan would contribute 0.3 percentage points towards the government’s ambition of a 2.5 per cent trend rate of growth.

  • The biggest change results from scrapping the corporation tax rise, previously planned to increase by 6 percentage points to 25 per cent. This alone will lead to £20 billion higher investment and £59 billion higher GDP.

  • National insurance and health and social care levy changes announced on 22 September raise forecast GDP by £25 billion.

  • Cutting the basic rate of income tax by 1 percentage point from 20 to 19 per cent raise forecast GDP by £8 billion.
  • Increased tax receipts due to faster economic growth will recover 75 per cent of the static cost of the ‘growth plan’ package.


Click here to read the briefing note in full

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