Briefing: tax burdens and elections

Analysis of 50 years of election results and tax burden data up to 2024-25,[1] when the next election must occur, shows that governments which raise tax burdens are less likely to win elections. Tax policy should not be determined by the electoral calendar but this research demonstrates that voters do pay attention to the impact of taxes. It also builds on previous research highlighting academic literature investigating the impact of the tax burden on economic growth and prosperity.[2]




[1] Office for Budget Responsibility, Public finances databank – January 2024, 22 January 2024, (accessed 23 January 2024).

[2] TaxPayers’ Alliance, Taxes, growth and the tax burden, 26 January 2024, (accessed 12 February 2024).

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